2024 Lok Sabha: INDIA bloc may cause NDA setbacks, but may not be effective

As the 2024 Lok Sabha elections approach, India's political chessboard is being reset. The burgeoning INDIA (Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance) consortium is stepping up against the seasoned National Democratic Alliance, promising an electoral showdown.

Over the past four years, alliances have shifted, power dynamics have swayed, and even the familiar name of UPA or the United Progressive Alliance has now been rebranded to INDIA. So, what will the election scenario look like in 2024?

Here's what you need to know:

• NDA's vote share may drop to around 43 per cent in 2024 from 45 per cent in 2019, whereas INDIA may climb from 27 per cent to around 37 per cent as parties change sides
• In terms of party numbers, NDA's coalition may almost double in size, indicating a strategic alignment with more regional parties

Why it matters

India's political arena is undergoing a seismic shift ahead of the 2024 elections. The emergence of the INDIA alliance, a rebrand of the established UPA, challenges the long-standing dominance of the NDA. This shift — marked by changing allegiances, vote shares, and seat counts — underscores the volatility and unpredictability of India's electoral landscape. The stakes are high as new alliances form and old ones reconfigure, setting the stage for a potentially transformative election that could redefine India's political trajectory.

The big picture

The political power dynamics in India seem to be shifted between 2019 and 2023. Both leading alliances, the NDA and UPA, witnessed shifts in seat counts, vote shares, and coalition compositions. In 2019, the UPA garnered 91 seats with a 27 per cent vote share. Now rebranded as INDIA, the alliance boasts 144 MPs and around 38 per cent vote share.

The NDA, which had a staggering 352 seats at 45 per cent vote share, has seen changes. Exits like Janata Dal (United) and Shiv Sena and entries like Ajit Pawar's NCP faction have caused its numbers to dip to 335 seats at about 43 per cent vote share.

By the numbers

Based on changing alliances, and 2019 numbers, here are the projected changes in the electoral math of the two tents as of 2023.

Seat Share:

• NDA: Decreased from 352 in 2019 to 335 in 2023
• UPA/INDIA: Rose from 91 in 2019 to 144 in 2023

Vote Share:

• NDA: Slid from 45 per cent in 2019 to 43 per cent in 2023
• UPA/INDIA: Jumped from 27 per cent in 2019 to about 37 per cent in 2023

Coalition Size:

• NDA: Grew from 19 parties in 2019 to 38 in 2023
• INDIA: Increased alliance strength from 18 parties in 2019 to 26 in 2023

Between the lines

The NDA retains its majority in 2023, but a diminishing seat and vote share might signal a decline. The increased number of parties in the NDA indicates strategic realignments.

In the corridors

At a recent NDA meeting, 38 parties showed up, including significant parties like the Nationalist Congress Party, the Shiv Sena (Shinde faction), and the Lok Janshakti Party. Of these, ten sidestepped the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, with only eight emerging victorious, capturing nine seats. The Bharatiya Janata Party's approach hinges on regional affiliations, partnering with smaller entities to tap into regional strengths.

Some projections place the INDIA alliance at 171 Lok Sabha seats against NDA's 335, hinting at potential BJP setbacks in pivotal states. INDIA's projected vote share is around 37 per cent to NDA's 43 per cent, leaving about 20 per cent for other entities. Despite INDIA's rise, NDA's influence remains evident.

What's next?

India's changing political narrative will be pivotal in shaping forthcoming elections, demanding keen observation.