As Nitish Kumar breaks up with BJP yet again, what next for Bihar politics? Key takeaways
Nitish Kumar is on route for another break-up with its NDA-ally BJP in Bihar. Here are the key takeaways from the developing political situation in Bihar.
By Rajdeep Sardesai: Amid the political upheaval in Bihar, Chief Minister Nitish Kumar met his party MLAs and MPs on Tuesday. According to sources, Nitish Kumar is on route for another break-up with its NDA-ally BJP and is likely to resign after meeting the Governor at 4 pm today.
In 2015, Nitish Kumar-led Janata Dal (United) parted ways with the BJP and joined hands with the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) and the Congress. The JD(U)-RJD-Congress 'Mahagathbandhan' won the Bihar Assembly election in 2015, with Nitish Kumar returning as the chief minister and RJD's Tejashwi Yadav as his deputy. Follow Bihar politics LIVE Updates
However, the alliance could not last long as Nitish Kumar brought down the Mahagathbandhan government in 2017 and joined hands with the BJP again.
Here are the key takeaways from the political situation in Bihar:
1) Nitish Kumar is a leader who has no permanent friends or enemies in politics. Nitish Kumar has made stunning switches for power in the past. While ruling Bihar with the BJP, he quit the NDA and tied up with the RJD. Then he deserted the RJD and went back to the BJP-led coalition.
2) By ditching the BJP, Nitish Kumar hopes to ensure his immediate survival in Bihar with a tie-up with the RJD. The BJP had been making Nitish Kumar the chief minister despite his JD)U) being the junior partner in the ruling alliance in Bihar. The idea was to expand the BJP’s base at the cost of the JD(U), and even Nitish Kumar’s own popularity. The saffron party wanted to have its own chief minister soon.
3) Nitish may now seek to revive his hope of being seen as a long-term rival to Prime Minister Narendra Modi nationally. There is also a theory of Nitish Kumar, once out of the NDA, emerging as one of the prime ministerial candidates in 2024 if the Congress does not do too well and state leaders somehow have the numbers to put together a 'khichdi sarkar'.
4) The Nitish Kumar of 2022 is greatly diminished compared to the Nitish of 2013 because of his frequent U-turns. Tejashwi Yadav has emerged as a strong opposition leader and may not trust Nitish Kumar fully or embrace the JD(U)’s anti-incumbency without conditions.
5) Nitish breaking up with the BJP will give a fillip to the Opposition after the collapse of Maharashtra’s Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) government. For the Congress, it would be a revenge of sorts.
6) The BJP’s long-term plan remains to emerge as party number one in Bihar by building a broader caste coalition. It would like to project Nitish Kumar’s “betrayal” to mobilise support in its favour.
7) In the short term, the BJP will see Nitish Kumar's departure and a loss of another ally as a setback ahead of 2024 general elections. The BJP knows that going into the national elections without Nitish Kumar will send the wrong socio-political message, and the party may have to pay electoral costs.
8) The BJP will revive the anti-corruption plank and jungle raj memories against Lalu Yadav and the Opposition.
9) Parties like the Congress have limited options in Bihar and the Hindi heartland but to align with bigger players. It’s the best-case scenario for the grand old party.
10) But it should not be forgotten that Nitish Kumar is just one of many challengers for the Opposition leadership along with Mamata Banerjee, Arvind Kejriwal and the Gandhis.
11) Trigger for Nitish's move was arguably the BJP’s successful coup in Maharashtra in breaking the Shiv Sena-led Maha Vikas Aghadi government.
12) Nitish Kumar has gone back to Lalu-Tejashwi combo but this time, the latter have more leverage since they have more numbers in the Bihar Assembly and Nitish'sesperation is greater.
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