Opinion: As Pakistan's political roller coaster continues, what next for Imran Khan?
If the Constitution of Pakistan survives, Imran Khan may also survive and if it is violated again, then his political survival is very difficult.
What is the future of Imran Khan after his second arrest in the last three months? Will he get relief from the superior courts of Pakistan? Will he be able to contest the next general election? Is this the end of Imran Khan’s politics? These are some important questions being debated inside and outside Pakistan since his arrest on August 5.
For me, Imran Khan is not important. I think the Constitution of Pakistan is more important than an individual and the Constitution is facing more challenges than Imran Khan.
Imran Khan is not the first Prime Minister to be arrested in Pakistan. Huseyn Shaheed Suhrawardy was arrested under treason charges in 1962 by General Ayub Khan, Zulfikar Ali Bhutto was arrested by General Zia-ul-Haq in 1977 under murder charges, Benazir Bhutto was arrested many times and convicted under corruption charges in 1999 when Nawaz Sharif was the prime Minister. Nawaz Sharif and Shahid Khaqan Abbasi were arrested in 2018 when Imran Khan was Prime Minister.
Why is the Constitution more important than Imran Khan? The Constitution of Pakistan is completing its 50th year on August 14, 2023. If the Constitution of Pakistan survives, Imran Khan may also survive and if it is violated again, then his political survival is very difficult.
What is the connection between the survival of Imran Khan with the survival of the Constitution? The National Assembly of Pakistan is completing its tenure this week. New elections within three months are the constitutional requirement. If there is a general election by November this year, Imran Khan will not be allowed to contest the election because, after his conviction by a lower court over corruption charges, he was disqualified for holding any public office.
The verdict of a district court of Islamabad was challenged in Islamabad High Court and in the Supreme Court on Tuesday. The Supreme Court admitted the petition. I spoke to some lawyers of Imran Khan. One was hopeful for relief, the other was not.
The problem is that if Imran Khan gets relief from the Supreme Court in this case, there are more than 180 cases pending in many civilian courts, and then, finally, a military court is also waiting for him. The new caretaker government will try its best to stop Khan from contesting a new election. I think if he will not be allowed to take part in the upcoming election, even then he can survive politically.
Take the example of Nawaz Sharif. He became the prime minister three times. Every time, he was thrown out of the government without completing his term. He was disqualified by the Supreme Court on a petition from Imran Khan in 2017. Disqualification was not enough. Nawaz Sharif was involved in many other cases and, finally, he was arrested just weeks before the 2018 election. Many people from his party were forced to join the party of Imran Khan. Everyone knew before the 2018 election that Imran Khan was the favourite of the military establishment.
In fact, Imran Khan was imposed on the people of Pakistan through a rigged election. One day, Maryam Nawaz, daughter of Nawaz Sharif, went to see her father in jail. She was arrested in front of her father. Imran Khan tried his best to torture Nawaz Sharif in jail. He was not allowed to speak to his sick wife Kulsoom Nawaz on the phone.
Hours before his wife’s death, he pleaded with jail authorities to let him speak to her on the phone. Kulsoom Nawaz died the same day and her husband was informed in jail many hours after her death. Shehbaz Sharif and many other political opponents were also arrested upon Imran Khan’s wish.
Nawaz Sharif survived despite conviction and disqualification. He threw out Imran Khan through a no-confidence motion in the Parliament by making an alliance with Asif Ali Zardari. His younger brother became the Prime Minister in 2022. It was actually Nawaz Sharif who decided to appoint General Asim Munir as the new Army Chief while sitting outside Pakistan. Shehbaz Sharif is now claiming that Nawaz Sharif will become the Prime Minister for the fourth time. If Nawaz Sharif can survive despite convictions and disqualifications, then Imran Khan can also survive.
There was a countrywide violent reaction to the arrest of Imran Khan on May 9, but why was there a very mild reaction on August 5 after his second arrest? Is he losing public support? The answer is NO. The opponents of Imran Khan are very well aware that his party is broken but his vote bank is still intact. His party won a by-election in Peshawar on August 6.
Previously, Imran Khan lost this seat but now his votes have increased by four times. His election symbol is a cricket bat. This bat is still a threat to the tiger (election symbol of Nawaz Sharif) and the arrow (election symbol of Zardari).
Shah Mehmood Qureshi, Vice Chairman of PTI, expressed his fear many times that some forces want to ban PTI because the vote bank of Imran Khan is still intact.
Will the Supreme Court of Pakistan allow the banning of a mainstream political party? The Chief Justice of Pakistan will complete his tenure in September this year. The next Chief Justice is Qazi Faez Isa, who faced a disqualification reference when Imran Khan was the Prime Minister.
I personally think that Qazi Faez Isa will not take revenge. He may act according to the Constitution. If the Supreme Court of Pakistan protects the Constitution, then it will be difficult to ban the PTI. This party may get relief from a judge who was under fire when the PTI was in power.
What way is left for the opponents of Imran Khan? They will try to delay the election. But any delay in the election will be an attack on the Constitution of Pakistan. A delay in the election will be considered no less than the suspension of the Constitution. Again, it is the duty of not only the Supreme Court but every citizen of Pakistan to protect the Constitution. This is the only consensus document which guarantees rights to all the citizens of all the provinces.
Imran Khan never cared about this Constitution when he was in power. He encouraged intelligence agencies to interfere in politics. Now, his survival is under threat. Only the supremacy of the Constitution can save him and his party. Imran Khan must realise that he is not the saviour of Pakistan. Actually, the Constitution is a saviour of every Pakistani.
(Hamid Mir is a Pakistani journalist who works for Geo News.)
(Views expressed in this opinion piece are that of the author.)
