Opinion: Karnataka - A state government focused on 2024 Lok Sabha polls

By Sandeep Shastri: The Siddaramaiah-led Congress government in Karnataka will complete 100 days in office in the last week of August. During this time, the state government’s focus has been on three key issues: implementing its five key poll promises; the Bharatiya Janata Party shaping up as the key opposition party; and the campaign for the 2024 Lok Sabha elections. All three are deeply interconnected.

Having secured a reasonably comfortable majority in the Assembly elections, the Congress went about its task of forming the government. It took a week of intense deliberations and intricate negotiations to decide who would be Chief Minister and Deputy Chief Minister. The Council of Ministers was also formed without too many major hiccups. The usual voices of disgruntlement were clearly there and reared their head at regular frequencies. It is not easy for a party that has among its MLAs and MLCs more than forty-five former ministers to form a ministry with a maximum strength of 34!

Promises, promises

The chief minister and his deputy were very clear that their priority was to implement the five key promises made to voters during the election campaign. This was not an easy task as the financial implications were mind-boggling. The expected skirmishes with the Centre soon began on the release of the quota of free rice for those below the poverty line. This was sought to be resolved by making payments to the accounts of potential beneficiaries as the state government was unable to secure the required quantum of rice for distribution.

Its promise of 200 units of free power to households was also implemented. It was accompanied by a stiff rise in power tariffs beyond the free quota. The government also fulfilled the promise of free travel for women in the government buses, with, of course a few restrictions. Schemes for the unemployment allowance for graduates and diploma holders and financial support for women heads of families were also announced.

The Congress government realised that the key to facing the electorate in the 2024 Lok Sabha polls in Karnataka was the visible implementation of these five promises. Thus, the party’s central leadership brought together its key Karnataka leaders for a meeting in Delhi to focus on these promises and begin the preparations for the 2024 Lok Sabha polls.

But this decision was not without its cost. The financial tightrope walk was evident with the government having to put on hold other development priorities to raise the additional resources for these schemes. And Congress MLAs were unhappy about not being able to secure government support for various other developmental priorities in their constituencies.

BJP’s woes in Karnataka

The state unit of the BJP is still trying to recover from its defeat a few months ago. There have been delays in the appointment of the Leader of the Opposition in the Assembly as well as the State unit President. An entire Assembly session was completed with an Opposition leader in place. While the BJP did launch a spirited attack on the government both on the floor of the House and outside the Assembly, the absence of a leader was clearly felt. Prospective candidates made concerted efforts to attack the government to demonstrate their credentials for the opposition leadership.

To be fair to the party, it has not lost a single opportunity to attack the government on a range of issues. Two factors, however, have restricted the capacity of the state unit of the BJP to effectively perform as the lead Opposition.

First, is the party’s relationship with the Janata Dal (Secular). There is very little empirical data to prove that an alliance would work to the advantage of the BJP, which already has 25 seats in the Lok Sabha from the state and one independent backing them. Any alliance with the JD(S) would also require it to concede a few seats to the ally. Further, as the two parties seek support from the same social groups, an alliance would not provide any complimentary benefits.

It is now clear that the BJP was favouring a merger of the two parties, and thus promised the Leader of the Opposition position to HD Kumaraswamy. JD(S) patriarch Deve Gowda, however, was clearly against any merger. The BJP and JD(S) have now agreed not to go forward with any alliance — but have expressed a willingness to cooperate in holding the government to account.

Secondly, the non-appointment of a Leader of the Opposition and a new state unit President has also placed breaks on the party. The alliance talk delayed the announcement. The party wishes to get the caste combination right. It hopes to retain its Lingayat vote and win over the Backward Castes. A decision on both positions is expected soon.

Goal 2024

The focus for both the BJP and the Congress is the 2024 polls. The BJP is clearly banking on the charisma of Prime Minister Narendra Modi. In the last four Lok Sabha elections, it has won a majority of the seats and hopes to maintain this trend. Lokniti-CSDS post-poll data reveals that in both 2014 and 2019, a key factor in the BJP’s performance was the Modi factor.

In 2014, six of every ten respondents in the study who voted for the BJP stated that if Modi were not the prime ministerial candidate, they may have voted differently. There was a marginal dip in these numbers in 2019, though they continued to remain high.

Soon after its loss in the Assembly elections, BJP supporters asserted that the defeat in Karnataka was on account of the unpopularity of the state government and in the Lok Sabha polls, they would vote for another Modi term. The Congress party is distinctly aware of this trend and is attempting to shift focus to the performance of the state government and seek votes on the implementation of its five guarantees.

It is now close to a quarter century since the Congress secured a majority of seats from Karnataka — it was only in 1999 when simultaneous elections to the Lok Sabha and Assembly were held, did the party come to power in the state as well as win a majority of Lok Sabha seats from the state. In the run-up to the next Lok Sabha elections, it will truly be a battle in Karnataka between the two principal rivals to win a majority of the seats from the state.

(Dr Sandeep Shastri is a keen student of politics for four decades and currently Director - Academics, NITTE Education Trust and National Coordinator, Lokniti Network. His last book was on Lal Bahadur Shastri - Power and Politics published by Rupa and Co.)

(Views expressed in this opinion piece are that of the author.)