Opinion: Not Rahul vs Modi, Congress scion must position 2024 as INDIA vs NDA
Just as the Supreme Court’s move to stay the conviction does not mean the end of the trial in the criminal defamation case against him, Rahul Gandhi has to be cautious about the euphoria within the Congress and its sympathisers.
By Rasheed Kidwai: In this hour of triumph and personal glory, Rahul Gandhi needs to be a lot humbler, level-headed and pragmatic, keeping in view the fragile unity among INDIA constituents.
Just as the Supreme Court’s move to stay the conviction does not mean the end of trial in the criminal defamation case against him, Rahul has to be cautious about the euphoria within the Congress and its sympathisers that the Gandhi scion is a ‘first among the equals’ within the INDIA alliance, and that he is an automatic choice of prime ministerial candidate for 2024 once he returns to the Lok Sabha.
Instead, Rahul, at the same stage, during or before the next round of INDIA meetings, has to make a public declaration so that the 2024 General Elections do not become 2019 like the Modi versus Rahul presidential style contest.
It must be remembered and reiterated that most INDIA constituents do not see the Congress as a dominant partner. The resemblance of equality among the Congress, Trinamool, JD [U], DMK, Aam Aadmi Party etc are prerequisite and necessary even if the Congress goes on to win Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh.
This power equation may, however, change if the Congress manages to beat both the BJP and the Bharatiya Rashtriya Samiti in Telangana assembly polls, a prospect that appears far more wishful than a doable task.
Significantly, AICC chief Mallikarjun Kharge, on several occasions in Bangalore and Chennai has ruled out the party’s claim on the top job. “We are not telling who should be the prime minister. We are not telling who is going to lead the alliance. The country is going through a critical situation. We want everyone to fight together. That is our desire,” Kharge had said while addressing a meeting organised on the occasion of Tamil Nadu Chief Minister MK Stalin’s 70th birthday.
The political arithmetic for Rahul, Kharge and INDIA constituents is rather simple yet insurmountable. If the BJP and Narendra Modi are checked in the Hindi heartland i.e. states like Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh, which contribute 65 Lok Sabha seats, then the road to a 2024 victory would be complicated for Modi.
While any correlation between the 2023 state assembly polls with 18th Lok Sabha may not be accurate, the opposition wants to target the ‘half of half’ i.e. half of 273 Lok Sabha seats between the Congress and regional parties.
There are four crucial states of Bengal, Bihar, Maharashtra and Karnataka where the BJP NDA had done exceedingly well in 2019 but the subsequent political developments have unfolded a new scenario.
In Bengal, for example, the BJP had won 18 Lok Sabha seats while in Bihar, the alliance with the JD[U] had resulted in netting 39 out of 40 parliamentary seats. In Karnataka, the BJP had won 24 out of 28 while in Maharashtra, the alliance with the undivided Shiv Sena had resulted in NDA allies winning 42 out of 48.
Imagine a situation if the BJP strength from these four states gets reduced to half? A simple majority of 272 would become a distant dream and the prospect of a khichdi government, a reality.
(Views expressed in this opinion piece are that of the author.)
