Opinion: Will BJP’s longest-serving Chief Minister Shivraj Chouhan survive this election?

By Milind Ghatwai: Being the longest-serving BJP chief minister in the country is no mean achievement but it definitely does not guarantee a future, especially when the central high command calls the shots.

Shivraj Singh Chouhan has occupied the Madhya Pradesh Chief Minister’s official bungalow, located close to the picturesque Badi Jheel of Bhopal, for more than 16 years. In his fourth term, he has realised the going is no longer smooth as the central leadership has almost taken charge of the election management in the state in what most observers describe as “clipping of his wings”.

Home Minister Amit Shah visited Indore on Sunday (July 30), three days after he made an unscheduled late-evening visit to the Madhya Pradesh capital on July 26. He addressed the party workers as he launched the poll campaign. Sunday's visit was his third in less than three weeks.

Early this month, BJP president JP Nadda appointed two Union ministers -- Bhupendra Yadav and Ashwini Vaishnaw -- as in-charge and co-in-charge of Madhya Pradesh. Union minister Narendra Singh Tomar was made the convenor of the poll management committee. Though such an arrangement was made for other poll-bound states too, the central intervention began in Madhya Pradesh much before and will continue as the election draws close.

The BJP has accorded priority to Madhya Pradesh because it’s the only big, party-ruled state among the five states going to the polls later this year. The saffron party had received marginally more votes than the Congress in 2018 but got fewer seats that allowed the grand old party to form a government headed by Kamal Nath.

Unlike the tight contest in MP, the Congress had made a sweep in Chhattisgarh. In Rajasthan, the margin was close enough to fuel speculation about a possible coup by deputy chief minister Sachin Pilot in cahoots with the Opposition BJP but it didn’t come to pass. Though Chouhan is the longest-serving BJP Chief Minister, he owes his current term to the rebellion by Jyotiraditya Scindia and his supporters who walked on the Congress.

Chouhan steadied the ship by winning a majority of the seats in the by-elections caused by the resignation of Congress legislators. There used to be speculations, stemming mostly from contenders within, and rumours floated by the rival Congress about his removal even in his past terms. The speculations, however, gained currency during his fourth innings, with his rivals justifying it on the ground that the party lost the 2018 Assembly elections on his watch. He has managed to continue in office.

The 64-year-old usually took out Jan Aashirwad Yatras across the state ahead of the Assembly elections to seek a mandate on his governance. This time, the party has decided to take out similar yatras, either with the old name or a different name like Vijay Sankalp Yatra, but the focus will not be on Chouhan alone as others like Scindia and Kailash Vijayvargiya are expected to be given equal responsibility as well.

The shift in strategy has as much to do with the prospect of facing a massive anti-incumbency. The party has been in power since 2003-end, barring the 15-month period from 2018-end to March 2020 as with the fatigue over Chouhan’s face, who has been in office since November 2005. Chouhan’s BJP predecessors were Babulal Gaur and Uma Bharti, the face of the 2003 elections.

To cite an example, the state Cabinet had tinkered with the idea of renaming Deendayal Rasoi Yojana, under which the poor get heavily subsidised meals, as “Mama ki thali” (the Chief Minister is popular as mama or maternal uncle) in June. While briefing reporters after the Cabinet meeting, Home minister and government spokesman Narottam Mishra had said the scheme will be expanded further. Chouhan was quick to issue a video statement later, saying there will be no change in the nomenclature.

To make matters worse, the Congress has started circulating surveys that point towards the declining graph of the ruling BJP and the chief minister.

Here is the SWOT (strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats) analysis of Shivraj Singh Chouhan, whose future seems to be uncertain:

Strengths

Chouhan has survived because he has his own following, especially among women and farmers, both huge constituencies. His image largely built on the initiatives he took on his own or copied from elsewhere, as also the largesse bestowed. The soft-spoken politician carefully nurtured his image as the benefactor.

His Ladli Laxmi scheme became so hit that it was adopted by other BJP-ruled states. He has exploited to the hilt his modest background and son of the soil demeanor. Prompted by the success of the Ladli Laxmi scheme, he has implemented the Ladli Behna scheme under which married women get Rs 1,000 every month with a promise to increase the amount gradually to Rs 3,000 per month. He expects the scheme to be the game changer.

BJP’s strong organisational network has stood him in good stead. The entry of Scindia and his supporters in the BJP has left many original workers and leaders unhappy, especially in the Gwalior-Chambal belt. No clear successor in sight.

Chouhan’s other core strength is his accessibility and shared public perception of humility.

Weaknesses

Soft-spoken in his initial years, he was accused of letting the bureaucracy get the better of him. Over the last few years, he has tried to project himself as a tough administrator, using intemperate language like threatening to bury people deep within the earth and hanging of public government officials and the corrupt.

He has been around for so long that there is fatigue among voters with his face. He has made thousands of promises during this period, only to repeat them or brush them under the carpet, ahead of the next round of elections. He has tried to copy Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath by resorting to what is pejoratively called “bulldozer justice”. He is facing a resurgent Congress which has largely put factionalism behind.

Chouhan’s Achilles’ heel is the coterie of bureaucrats who have had influenced him since his early years as Chief Minister.

Opportunities

Ahead of the 2014 general elections, a section of the BJP, which sympathised with Lal Krishna Advani, had tried to project Chouhan as another contender for the PM’s post. The Narendra Modi wave not just swept the country but also made his position vulnerable. He never forgets to lavish praise on Modi calling him God’s gift, or a superhuman. Only a strong victory would promise him future responsibilities in or outside the state, though he has always maintained that he was not keen on a central role.

If not the chief minister, Chouhan may yet be a Cabinet contender in the next possible Modi-led central government. To Chouhan’s credit is a claimed turnaround in the agriculture sector of Madhya Pradesh; this many say, could get him a major portfolio like agriculture.

Threats

Over the years, Chouhan has earned a few detractors within the party, themselves contenders for the top post, or those who fancied their chances later. Sixteen years is a long time in politics and leaders with unfulfilled ambitions like Kailash Vijayvargiya and Narottam Mishra are possible threats.

(Milind Ghatwai is a freelance journalist with over three decades of experience.)

(Views expressed in this opinion piece are that of the author.)